A data-driven analysis of shootings and aggravated assaults reported in Brockton, MA between 2021–2025, built from official Brockton Police Department dispatch logs.
High-severity incidents reported through official BPD dispatch logs, 2021–2025.
How have shooting and aggravated assault incidents changed since 2021?
Incidents peaked in 2021–2022 with over 600 incidents each year, then dropped sharply in 2023 — a 44% reduction. However, 2024 and 2025 show a gradual climb back, suggesting the decline may not be sustained.
ShotSpotter activations declined significantly from 233 (2021) to 71 (2025), possibly reflecting changes in system deployment rather than fewer gunshots. Meanwhile, direct gunshot calls from residents have remained stubbornly high — rising from 137 in 2021 to 167 in 2025.
Streets with the highest concentration of shooting and aggravated assault incidents, 2021–2025.
Main Street leads with 171 incidents — nearly double the next highest street. The downtown corridor along Main St, N Main St, and Centre St accounts for a disproportionate share of high-severity incidents.
Key corridors: The Main St / Centre St corridor, the Montello St corridor, and the Warren Ave / Crescent St area form the three primary zones of concern.
Westgate Dr stands out as a residential area appearing in the top 10, with 41 incidents over the period — a concern for a primarily residential neighborhood.
Understanding temporal patterns helps residents stay informed and helps officials deploy resources effectively.
What happens after a high-severity call is dispatched?
Only 5% of high-severity incidents result in an arrest. The most common outcome — "Unfounded / Nothing Located" at 36% — means officers responded but found no evidence or suspects at the scene.
An additional 23% result in a report being taken for further investigation, while 10% are resolved as "Matter Settled" on scene.
This pattern is consistent with the nature of gunshot reports — by the time officers arrive, the scene is often cleared. However, it also underscores the challenge of accountability in violent crime.
Gun violence and aggravated assault carry enormous financial costs — costs ultimately borne by Brockton residents.
According to CrimeGrade, the total projected cost of crime in Brockton for 2025 is approximately $98.3 million when including both tangible costs and the intangible costs of pain and suffering. That translates to roughly $932 per household per year.
National research from Everytown and the Commonwealth Fund estimates each gun death costs taxpayers approximately $273,904 in medical care, emergency response, criminal justice proceedings, and lost economic productivity. Each nonfatal firearm injury costs approximately $25,150.
At the local level, the National Institute for Criminal Justice Reform estimates a single non-fatal shooting can cost a community between $700,000 and $750,000, while a fatal shooting can reach up to $1.2 million when accounting for first responders, hospitalization, investigation, courts, and long-term consequences.
Understanding risk factors is the first step toward building safer communities.
With a 13.9% poverty rate and median income below the state average, economic hardship correlates with elevated violent crime. Targeted investment in high-impact corridors can disrupt this cycle.
Incidents spike May–September and peak between 8PM–2AM. Community programming, lighting improvements, and increased patrols during these windows can reduce risk.
A small number of streets — primarily Main St, Centre St, and Montello St corridors — account for a disproportionate share of incidents, enabling focused intervention.
Only 5% of high-severity incidents result in arrest, limiting deterrence. Community-based violence intervention programs and improved investigative capacity can increase accountability.